Identifying the Factors Contributing to Injury Severity in Work Zone Rear-End Crashes

Kairan Zhang,Mohamed Hassan

doi:10.1155/2019/4126102

Kairan Zhang, Mohamed Hassan

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/4126102

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Abstract

Egypt’s National Road Project is a large infrastructure project aiming to upgrade the existing network of 2500 kilometers as well as constructing new roads of 4000 kilometers to meet today’s need. Increasing highway work zones eventually direct the challenges for traffic safety and mobility. Realizing the need for mitigating the impact of such a challenging scenario, this paper aims to investigate and identify the factors of work zone rear-end crash severity. In this regard, a random parameter ordered probit model was applied to analyze data on the Egyptian long-term highway work zone projects during the period of 2010 to 2017. The factors of speeding and foggy weather conditions are found to be the key indicators for modeling the random parameters. Besides, during the weekend and at nighttime, there is a higher risk of rear-end crash in work zones, while heavy and passenger vehicles are at greater risk in this regard. It is anticipated that the findings of this study would facilitate transport agencies in developing effective measures to ensure safe mobility across work zones.

Highlights

10,466 people in Egypt died in road crashes in the year 2013
Each explanatory variable of the data set was first tested for multicollinearity on the basis of the Variance Inflation Factor test (VIF)
The other parameter of ‘foggy weather condition’ has secured the mean value of -0.98 with 1.04 value of standard deviation. This indicates that 82.7% of rear-end crashes that occurred during foggy weather conditions result in a decrease in possible injury crashes, while 17.3% of the crashes result in an increase in fatal and injury crashes

Summary

Introduction

10,466 people in Egypt died in road crashes in the year 2013. Such a higher proportion of road traffic fatality highlights the critical nature of road safety in Egypt. In the National Roads Project, more than 4000 kilometers of new roads are currently being constructed to strengthen the Egyptian road network. Another 2500 kilometers of existing road networks are reportedly being upgraded [3], which has directly led to an increase in the number of work zones. These work zones impede the traffic and create conflicting situations for traffic flow and construction activities

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