Abstract
Droughts have become increasingly severe and frequent due to climate change. Droughts cause water scarcity and various socio-economic issues. Therefore, it is necessary to address drought conditions water resource management policies. The drought characteristics within each administrative division need to be closely analyzed to support effective policy-making. A drought impact factor analysis using a drought scenario development (DSD) model, is presented in this study. The DSD model identifies the drought impact factor for each administrative division through the relationship between various hydrometeorological factors and drought indices, and constructs a drought scenario. The proposed model was applied to 167 administrative divisions in South Korea. Hydrological factors significantly impact droughts than meteorological factors in South Korea. Identified drought impact factors are analyzed based on spatio-temporal variability to recognize the features in various aspects of droughts. Changes in water demand and severe drought periods were considered for temporal variability. Administrative divisions were grouped into four zones based on the type of water demand, and zonally analyzed to examine spatial variability. Finally, a drought scenario based on the identified drought impact factor was constructed to present the probable drought conditions. Components of the drought scenario represent the constitution of water resources within an administrative division, and high and low levels of each component were combined. The constructed drought scenarios facilitate effective policy-making for managing water resources.
Highlights
Drought is generally defined as a condition of water scarcity, originating from a complex interaction between atmospheric, hydrological, and socio-economic factors
The results indicated that meteorological factors have a greater impact on droughts than hydrological factors
The scarcity of water occurs when the inflow is smaller than the outflow, and all of the factors utilized in the drought impact factors (DIF) analysis are related to inflow
Summary
Drought is generally defined as a condition of water scarcity, originating from a complex interaction between atmospheric, hydrological, and socio-economic factors. To manage water resources efficiently with a policy to reduce drought damage, it is necessary to analyze the drought in administrative divisions. The severity of drought changes depending on the duration and regional characteristics Drought indices, such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI), can be utilized to quantify drought. It is possible to access the conditions of water resources in areas with data on hydrometeorological factors. The drought scenario describes the condition of water resources in the each area that can be developed when a future drought occurs. It is possible to explain future water resource conditions through drought scenarios and propose effective precautions and responses. The results of this study can be used to manage water resource policies for reducing drought damage
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