Abstract
China’s urbanization has attracted considerable academic attention. However, more work is required to understand and examine the driving mechanisms of urbanization, especially within the context of the transition from socialism. We used a regression model and a geographical detector technique to determine the direction and strength of factors influencing urbanization in prefecture-level cities in China. We found that China’s urbanization development model has two characteristics: administrative hierarchy and spatial agglomeration. Based on our conceptual framework, we identified the positive effect exerted by the real estate investment and per capita fiscal expenditure on urbanization, as well as the negative impact exerted by the urban–rural income ratio. The results revealed that China’s urbanization is a hybrid process: the forces from power and capital contribute to high levels of urbanization. When comparing the strength of the factors influencing urbanization between coastal and inland cities, we found that real estate investment and per capita fiscal expenditure in coastal cities have a greater impact on urbanization than in inland cities. In contrast, the impact of the urban–rural income ratio on urbanization is larger in inland cities than in coastal cities. A close examination on the factors influencing China’s rapid urbanization is the key to further advancing our understanding of the dynamic mechanisms of China’s urbanization. Our findings can help Chinese policy makers formulate more detailed urbanization strategies with consideration of regional characteristics.
Highlights
Urbanization is one of the most remarkable changes in human history [1]
We analyzed the distribution of urbanization in prefecture-level cities in China, and examined the driving forces based on the developed conceptual framework
We found that the urbanization pattern in China has two characteristics: administrative hierarchy and spatial agglomeration
Summary
Urbanization is one of the most remarkable changes in human history [1]. Many scholars from different fields have contributed to attempt to depict urbanization [2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]. According to the latest projection and estimate of the world urbanization prospects issued by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, the world’s urban population continues to grow at a higher rate than the world’s total population. By 2050, 68% of the world population is projected to live in urban areas [11]. Urbanization is progressing rapidly in underdeveloped areas, and the urban population of developing countries is anticipated to grow by an average 2.3% per year from 2000 to 2030. During this period, almost all of the world’s population growth will be absorbed by cities in less developed regions [3]. The urbanization in developed countries has basically entered a mature stage, and the focus of urbanization has shifted to developing countries, especially China’s unique urbanization path, which has received considerable attention [5,12]
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