Identifying Suitable Habitat for Invasive Species Using Ecological Niche Models and the Policy Implications of Range Forecasts

Abstract

Abstract Ecological niche modeling seeks to address a fundamental question in ecology: What is the potential geographic distribution of an organism? The answer is central to a wide range of environmental questions (Guisan and Thuiller 2005). It can identify potential conservation zones or guide selection of areas for the reintroduction of threatened and endangered species (Araujo et al. 2004) based on their potential range. Similarly, the modeling of suitable habitat can reveal at which unsurveyed sites rare species are most likely to occur (Elith and Burgman 2002; Raxworthy et al. 2003). Based on scenarios of future climate change, land use, and habitat availability, ecological niche modeling can predict potential future shifts in species distributions (Thuiller et al. 2004).