Identifying Soccer Players on Facebook Through Predictive Analytics

Abstract

This study assesses the feasibility of identifying self-reported sports practitioners (soccer players) on Facebook. The main goal is to develop a system to support marketers with the decision as to which prospects to target for advertising purposes. To do so, we benchmark several algorithms (i.e., random forest, logistic regression, adaboost, rotation forest, neural networks, and kernel factory) using five times twofold cross-validation. To evaluate performance and variable importances, we build a fusion model, which combines the results of the other algorithms using the weighted average. This technique is also referred to as information-fusion sensitivity analysis. The results reveal that Facebook data provide a viable basis to come up with sports predictions as the predictive performance ranges from 72.01% to 80.43% for area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), from 81.96% to 83.95% for accuracy, and from 2.41 to 3.06 for top-decile lift. Our benchmark study indicates that stochastic adaboost, the fusion model, random forest, rotation forest, and regularized logistic regression are the best-performing algorithms. Furthermore, the results show that the most important variables are the average number of friends that play soccer, membership of a soccer group, and the number of favorite teams. We also assess the impact of our results on profitability by conducting a thorough sensitivity analysis. Our analysis reveals that our approach can be beneficial for a wide range of companies. The analysis and results in this study will assist sports brands with decisions regarding their implementation of targeted marketing approaches.