Identifying risk of first COPD exacerbation in COPD patients in GOLD group A/B in the UK

Abstract

<b>Introduction:</b> Although prior exacerbations are an established risk factor for future exacerbation, it is unclear which patients are at higher risk of first moderate or severe exacerbation, particularly among GOLD B patients. This study investigated risk factors for the first moderate and severe exacerbation among GOLD group A and B COPD patients. <b>Methods:</b> A retrospective cohort of GOLD A/B COPD patients according to 2020 GOLD criteria, aged ≥35 years, FEV₁/FVC score of &lt;0.7, from Jan 2013 - Dec 2019 were identified from UK Clinical Practice Research Database linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients followed for 12 months had no prior exacerbations in the two years prior to index date, with multivariable models from Cox regression used to estimate the relative risk of the first severe and moderate exacerbation associated with potential risk factors. <b>Results:</b> Among 148396 patients with COPD (mean [SD] age: 66.13 [10.98] years, 56.63% males), 102271 (68.92%) were GOLD A and 46125 (31.08%) GOLD B. Patient outcomes are presented in Table 1. Table 1 <b>Conclusions:</b> In a real-world primary care setting, lower predicted FEV₁% and higher breathlessness were associated with an increased risk of first moderate and severe exacerbation over one year in COPD patients in GOLD group A/B. The risk factors we have identified will aid physicians to recognise COPD patients at risk of a first exacerbation. <b>Funding:</b> GSK (217450)