Abstract
Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.
Highlights
Outcomes of climate change challenge the conservation and per‐ sistence of many species (Gouveia et al, 2016), especially those considered to be endemic and threatened with higher extinction risks (Lambers, 2015)
Habitat suitability assessments based on species distribution modeling (SDM) have been widely used to understand the species response to environmental changes (Gouveia et al, 2016) and to identify re‐ fugia (Keppel et al, 2012)
We aimed to (a) assess the extent that climate change will impact the R. roxellana habitat distribution from the current period to the 2050s, (b) identify refugia locations that could maintain the population under climate change and dispersal paths that could facil‐ itate the movement of the population to suitable future habitats, and (c) provide suggestions for the conservation of R. roxellana in Hubei Province under environmental change
Summary
Outcomes of climate change challenge the conservation and per‐ sistence of many species (Gouveia et al, 2016), especially those considered to be endemic and threatened with higher extinction risks (Lambers, 2015). Previous studies of connectivity analysis are used to identify areas that promote species movements between their current habitats (Brodie et al, 2015; Larue & Nielsen, 2008; Wang et al, 2014) This analysis does not consider that suitable areas will shift with climate change; it does not determine key areas of importance under changing climate conditions. We aimed to (a) assess the extent that climate change will impact the R. roxellana habitat distribution from the current period to the 2050s, (b) identify refugia locations that could maintain the population under climate change and dispersal paths that could facil‐ itate the movement of the population to suitable future habitats, and (c) provide suggestions for the conservation of R. roxellana in Hubei Province under environmental change
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