Abstract

This paper aims at proposing a quantitative methodology to identify promising research frontiers (RFs) based on bibliographic information of scientific papers and patents. To achieve this, core technological documents are identified by suggesting several indices which measure paper impact, research impact, patent novelty, impact, marketability, and the right range to evaluate technological documents and which measure the research capability of research organizations (ROs) such as a RO’s activity, productivity, market competitiveness, and publication impact. The RFs can be identified by clustering core technological documents, and promising indices of each RF which are from the perspectives of growth, impact, marketability, and science-based effect, are calculated to promising RFs. As an illustration, this paper selects the case of pattern recognition technology among various technologies in the information and communication technology sector. To validate the proposed method, emerging technologies on the hype cycle are utilized, allowing analysts to compare the results. Comparing the results derived from scientific papers and patents, the results from scientific papers are proper to suggest themes for research (R) in relatively long-term perspective, whereas the results from patents are appropriate for providing themes for development (D) in terms of relatively short-term view. This approach can assist research organizations and companies in devising a technology strategy for a future direction of research and development.

Highlights

  • As it is crucial to raise the competitiveness of scientific technology as a strategy for the future, the detection of promising technologies in an early stage is one of the most important challenges

  • The research frontiers (RFs) shown in Table 7 were extracted by conducting Girvan and Newman clustering from the network based on the bibliographic coupling relation between the papers

  • The research frontiers (RFs) shown in Table 10 were extracted by conducting Girvan and Newman clustering from the network, based on the bibliographic coupling relation between patents

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Summary

Introduction

As it is crucial to raise the competitiveness of scientific technology as a strategy for the future, the detection of promising technologies in an early stage is one of the most important challenges. If companies and countries cannot respond to rapidly changing technological trends in time and seize promising technological opportunities at an early stage, it is difficult for them to gain a competitive advantage in the market, and to lead technological innovation and social change. Many developed countries recognize the importance of a promising technology discovery. Several research programs supporting the discovery of future technologies are conducted by Horizon 2020 of the European Union (EU), the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the United States of America (US), and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development (NEDO) of Japan. Many major companies and research institutes have attempted to explore promising technologies in diverse ways, in accordance with their own situations.

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