Abstract
BackgroundUp to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits.Methods and findingsThe analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000–2009 provided by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15–34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides). The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15–34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27th December 2007 to 19th February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related.ConclusionsThere was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008. This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.
Highlights
Suicide is one of the leading causes of death in young people
Data Data for all deaths classified as suicide, undetermined intent, and accidental for residents of Wales between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2009 were supplied by the Office for National Statistics, Newport
The sex and cause of death distribution of deaths were similar in Bridgend to those seen for all Wales (Table 1), with the exception that in both all ages combined and 15–34 year olds there was statistical evidence (p = 0.002 and p = 0.019, respectively) of a higher proportion of accidental hanging/strangulation compared to accidental poisoning deaths in Bridgend than the rest of Wales
Summary
Suicide is one of the leading causes of death in young people. In Wales, the country in the United Kingdom (UK) where this study is based, suicide accounts for almost one in five deaths among men aged 15–24 and almost one in 10 deaths among women of that age [1].A suicide cluster can be defined as an excessive number of suicides occurring in close temporal and geographical proximity [2]. A recent analysis using space-time (temporo-spatial) models over an 18 year period in New Zealand found that 1.3% of probable suicides occurred in clusters [2]. In the United States (U.S.) it has been estimated that at least 2% of teenage suicides occur in temporo-spatial clusters; clustering is thought to be two to four times more common among young people (aged 15–24 years) than among other age groups [3,4]. Up to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits
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