Abstract
Lucy Faithfull Foundation, Birmingham, UnitedKingdom, and the University of BirminghamThis study uses prognostic modeling to identify the best static and dynamic predictorsof sexual and violent recidivism for a sample of 3,773 sexual offenders who receivedtreatment in a correctional establishment in the United Kingdom between 1996 and2006. The use of individual static items was found to predict recidivism better than amodiÞed version of a risk score produced from the static risk assessment Risk Matrix2000/sexual dimension (RM2000/s) (Thornton et al., 2003). The best predictors ofrecidivism were age at release, number of sexual appearances, and number of criminalappearances. Pre- and post-psychological measures did not remain in the model in thepresence of these three static variables. Further exploratory analyses found that pre-treatment scores on measures related to the socioaffective domain were the mostpredictive of the dynamic risk domains, but did not add to the predictive power of thestatic variables. An overall score for deviance was calculated and this score did remainin a model with individual static items. The potential explanations for these Þndings arediscussed along with implications for the assessment of risk in this population.Keywords:
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
