Identifying predictors for comorbidities related mortality versus pancreatic cancer related mortality in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm.

Abstract

Few data are available for surveillance decisions focusing on factors related to mortality, as the primary outcome, in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) patients. We aimed to identify imaging features and patient backgrounds associated with mortality risks by comparing pancreatic cancer (PC) and comorbidities. We retrospectively conducted a multicenter long-term follow-up of 1864 IPMN patients. Competing risk analysis was performed for PC- and comorbidity-related mortality. During the median follow-up period of 5.5years, 14.0% (261/1864) of patients died. Main pancreatic duct ≥5mm and mural nodules were significantly related to all-cause and PC-related mortality, whereas cyst ≥30mm did not relate. In 1730 patients without high-risk imaging features, 48 and 180 patients died of PC and comorbidity. In the derivation cohort, a prediction model for comorbidity-related mortality was created, comprising age, cancer history, diabetes mellitus complications, chronic heart failure, stroke, paralysis, peripheral artery disease, liver cirrhosis, and collagen disease in multivariate analysis. If a patient had a 5 score, 5- and 10-year comorbidity-related mortality is estimated at 18.9% and 50.2%, respectively, more than 7 times higher than PC-related mortality. The model score was also significantly associated with comorbidity-related mortality in a validation cohort. This study demonstrates main pancreatic duct dilation and mural nodules indicate risk of PC-related mortality, identifying patients who need periodic examination. A comorbidity-related mortality prediction model based on the patient's age and comorbidities can stratify patients who do not require regular tests, especially beyond 5years, among IPMN patients without high-risk features. T2022-0046.