Abstract
Simple SummaryArma custos is a predatory insect that can attack Spodoptera frugiperda and many other important agricultural and forest pests. In this study, we built a model to predict the potential distribution of A. custos under current and future climatic conditions for supporting its current and future use. Currently, the potential highly suitable areas of A. custos are mainly distributed in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5 in the 2050s and 2070s, the suitable areas for A. custos will decrease and shift towards Northeast China. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces under the current climatic condition. Under the future climate scenarios, Northeast China is not suitable for the survival of S. frugiperda. Thus, A. custos does not need to be released here.Spodoptera frugiperda is a notorious pest that feeds on more than 80 crops, and has spread over 100 countries. Many biological agents have been employed to regulate it, such as Arma custos. A. custos is a polyphagous predatory heteropteran, which can effectively suppress several agricultural and forest pests. Thus, in order to understand where A. custos can survive and where can be released, MaxEnt was used to predict the potentially suitable areas for A. custos in China under climate change conditions. The results show that the annual mean temperature (bio1) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the major factors influencing the distribution of A. custos. The optimal range of the two are 7.5 to 15 °C, 750 to 1200 mm, respectively. The current climate is highly suitable for A. custos in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces. Under the future climatic scenarios, the suitable area will decrease and shift towards the north. Overall, this result can provide a reference framework for future application of A. custos for biological control.
Highlights
The global transportation and trade have caused the spread of invasive species, greatly threatening crop production globally [1]
The distribution of the AUC ratio calculated as AUCpartial /AUCrandom was significantly greater than the random AUC ratio (p < 0.001), which shows high performance of the model (Figure 3)
MaxEnt predictto thepredict potential area of A. custos on occurrence data and environmental applied to MaxEnt thedistribution potential distribution areabased of A.custos based on occurrence data and variables undervariables current and future climatic in China
Summary
The global transportation and trade have caused the spread of invasive species, greatly threatening crop production globally [1]. This constitutes a serious threat to developing countries that have poor agricultural productivity and huge food demands. Insects 2020, 11, 674 the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda, FAW) is one of the most aggressive pests due to its strong flight ability and adaptation to a wide range of environments [1,2,3]. FAW is a polyphagous pest with broad host range, known to feed on 353 host plants globally, especially maize [4,5]. In China, FAW was first discovered in Yunnan Province in late December
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