Identifying possible drivers of the abrupt and persistent delay in capelin spawning timing following the 1991 stock collapse in Newfoundland, Canada

Abstract

Abstract Spawning timing in fish is generally cyclical in temperate regions in order to increase the probability of matching larval occurrence with ideal environmental conditions. The capelin stock in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Divisions 2J3KL collapsed in 1990–1991 and has not recovered. This collapse was concomitant with collapses in groundfish stocks and cold oceanographic conditions. Using citizen science data, newspaper archives, grey and primary literature, and monitoring data, a century of capelin beach spawning times were compiled. Capelin beach spawning has been persistently 3 weeks later since the stock collapse. To identify potential predictors of capelin spawning timing, an exploratory analysis was conducted using environmental and biological variables and a period factor that categorized a year as either pre-collapse (1990 and earlier) or post-collapse (post-1990) in a step-wise multiple regression model. Spawning timing was predicted to be delayed in the post-collapse period when there were negative anomalies in the Newfoundland and Labrador Climate Index and summer (June–August) North Atlantic Oscillation, and when there was a decrease in mean length of the spawning population. The production of weak year-classes is predicted when spawning is delayed, suggesting that late spawning is severely inhibiting the recovery of the stock.