Identifying patients at increased risk of non-ventilator-associated pneumonia on admission to hospital: a pragmatic prognostic screening tool to trigger preventative action

Abstract

Non-ventilator healthcare-associated pneumonia (NV-HAP) is an important healthcare-associated infection. This study tested the feasibility of using routine admission data to identify those patients at high risk of NV-HAP who could benefit from targeted, preventive interventions. Patients aged ≥64 years who developed NV-HAP five days or more after admission to elderly-care wards, were identified by retrospective case note review together with matched controls. Data on potential predictors of NV-HAP were captured from admission records. Multi-variate analysis was used to build a prognostic screening tool (PRHAPs); acceptability and feasibility of the tool was evaluated. A total of 382 cases/381 control patients were included in the analysis. Ten predictors were included in the final model; nine increased the risk of NV-HAP (OR between 1.68 and 2.42) and one (independent mobility) was protective (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.30-0.75). The model correctly predicted 68% of the patients with and without NV-HAP; sensitivity 77%; specificity 61%. The PRHAPs tool risk score was 60% or more if two predictors were present and over 70% if three were present. An expert consensus group supported incorporating the PRHAPs tool into electronic logic systems as an efficient mechanism to identify patients at risk of NV-HAP and target preventative strategies. This prognostic screening (PRHAPs) tool, applied to data routinely collected when a patient is admitted to hospital, could enable staff to identify patients at greatest risk of NV-HAP, target scarce resources in implementing a prevention care bundle, and reduce the use of antimicrobial agents.