Identifying Optimal Candidates for Primary Tumor Resection Among Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Predictive Model

Abstract

Background There is a controversy about whether surgery should proceed among metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC) patients. A survival benefit was observed in mPC patients who underwent primary tumor resection; however, determining which patients would benefit from surgery is complex. For this purpose, we created a model to identify mPC patients who may benefit from primary tumor excision. Methods Patients with mPC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, and separated into surgery and nonsurgery groups based on whether the primary tumor was resected. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to balance confounding factors between the two groups. A nomogram was developed using multivariable logistic regression to estimate surgical benefit. Our model is evaluated using multiple methods. Results About 662 of 14,183 mPC patients had primary tumor surgery. Kaplan–Meier analyses showed that the surgery group had a better prognosis. After PSM, a survival benefit was still observed in the surgery group. Among the surgery cohort, 202 patients survived longer than 4 months (surgery-beneficial group). The nomogram discriminated better in training and validation sets under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and calibration curves were consistent. Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that it was clinically valuable. This model is better at identifying candidates for primary tumor excision. Conclusion A helpful prediction model was developed and validated to identify ideal candidates who may benefit from primary tumor resection in mPC.