Identifying Linear Restrictions on the Monetary Exchange Rate Model and the Uncovered Interest Parity: Cointegration Evidence from the Canadian-U.S. Dollar

Abstract

In this paper, the long-run validity of the monetary model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar is reexamined. The time-series properties of the variables are examined with the use of nonseasonal and seasonal unit root and stationarity tests, and it is shown that they are I(1) processes with no seasonal effects. Two significant cointegration vectors are discovered using Johansen's methodology, but the system is found to be overidentified and, hence, the authors are unable to assign the monetary model with either vector. Parameter stability of Johansen's results is tested using the recursive methodology developed by H. Hansen and S. Johansen (1993).