Identifying landscape predictors of ocelot road mortality

Abstract

For depleted wildlife populations, understanding and effectively mitigating the direct and indirect impacts of roads can be a key component of recovery efforts. The ocelot is a federally endangered wild felid at risk of local extinction in south Texas, where vehicle collisions are their largest known source of mortality. To support road mortality mitigation, we evaluated mortality risk across the south Texas road network. We also assessed whether a sympatric carnivore, the bobcat, could serve as a surrogate to inform mortality risk. We used several presence-only species distribution models to evaluate a suite of candidate landscape and road attributes and identify those associated with elevated road mortality risk using a 35-year wild felid road mortality dataset. Consensus predictions among models identified high-risk road segments for ocelots and bobcats. We compared predictions between species to determine overlap of high-risk areas. Areas where core ocelot habitat intersected roadways represented the greatest mortality risk, reflecting ocelot reliance on intact habitat and avoidance of degraded and fragmented landscapes. Bobcat road mortality risk had similar relationships to landscape features, with nearly all areas classified as high-risk for ocelots also identified as high-risk for bobcats. Ocelots are vulnerable to road mortality in areas where roads intersect their intact scrub habitat. Bobcats, with appropriate data filters in place, are an acceptable surrogate for informing ocelot road mortality, particularly when ocelot mortality data are limited and for time-sensitive conservation decision-making. For ocelots and other fragmentation-intolerant carnivore species, wildlife underpasses and fencing in focused areas where roads and intact habitat intersect may be feasible options to reduce road mortality.