Identifying key parameters and trends in civil violence: a sub-regional, agent-based simulation approach using GIS

Abstract

This work extends a popular agent-based simulation model of civil violence and analyses the effects of these extensions within the test-case region of Iran. First, a macro-level model of civil violence using geographic information science methods and real-world transportation network data is modelled and introduced. A detailed experimental design analyses the sensitivity of the modelled outbreak of civil violence on road network structures. Next, we use individual agent location to develop a personal legitimacy value for each agent of the system and model this legitimacy as a function of agent movement through the region. The resulting models indicate that the occurrence of civil violence in the derived simulations is very sensitive to network composition and connectivity of a given sub-region and identify a small number of behavioural outbreak trends to which sub-regions can be classified. We also show that regional legitimacy can have a marked effect on central authority agent distribution and movement.