Abstract

Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates. While habitat loss poses the greatest threat to amphibians, a spreading fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is seriously affecting an increasing number of species. Although Bd is widely prevalent, there are identifiable heterogeneities in the pathogen’s distribution that are linked to environmental parameters. Our objective was to identify conditions that affect the geographic distribution of this pathogen using species distribution models (SDMs), with a special focus on Eastern Europe. SDMs can help identify hotspots for future outbreaks of Bd, but perhaps more importantly, they can identify locations that may be environmental refuges (“coldspots”) from infection. In general, climate is considered a major factor in driving amphibian disease dynamics, but temperature in particular has received increased attention. Here, 42 environmental raster layers containing data on climate, soil and human impacts were used. Mean annual temperature range (or ‘continentality’) was found to have the strongest constrain on the geographic distribution of this pathogen. Using the partial dependence visualization module in the R package ‘embarcadero’, a number of corresponding coldspots were identified.

Highlights

  • Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates with a third of currently known species endangered with extinction and habitat loss clearly poses the greatest threat to amphibians, a newly recognized fungal disease is seriously affecting an increasing number of species [1]

  • Using species distribution models (SDMs), our objective was to identify conditions that constrain the geographic distribution of this pathogen in Eastern Europe in an aim to identify hotspots for future outbreaks of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), but perhaps more

  • An indication that low temperatures limit the spread of Bd is the ascending character of the partial dependence curve plotted for the minimum temperature of the coldest month, showing a steep rise of habitat suitability on approaching the mark of 0oC

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Summary

Introduction

Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates with a third of currently known species endangered with extinction and habitat loss clearly poses the greatest threat to amphibians, a newly recognized fungal disease is seriously affecting an increasing number of species [1]. This disease caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been linked to the declines of amphibian species globally and represents the greatest documented loss of biodiversity attributable to a pathogen [2]. Using SDMs, our objective was to identify conditions that constrain the geographic distribution of this pathogen in Eastern Europe in an aim to identify hotspots for future outbreaks of Bd, but perhaps more

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