Abstract
The impact of simulated future climate change on land degradation was assessed in three representative study sites of Thessaly, Greece, one of the country’s most important agronomic zones. Two possible scenarios were used for estimation of future climatic conditions, which were based on greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Three time periods were selected: the reference past period 1981–2000 for comparison, and the future periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. Based on soil characteristics, past and future climate conditions, type of land uses, and land management prevailing in the study area, the Environmentally Sensitive to desertification Areas (ESAs) were assessed for each period using the MEDALUS-ESAI index. Soil losses derived by water and tillage erosion were also assessed for the future periods using existing empirical equations. Furthermore, primary soil salinization risk was assessed using an algorithm of individual indicators related to the natural environment or socio-economic characteristics. The obtained data by both climatic scenarios predicted increases in mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature. Concerning annual precipitation, reductions are generally expected for the three study sites. Desertification risk in the future is expected to increase in comparison to the reference period. Soil losses are estimated to be more important in sloping areas, due especially to tillage erosion in at least one study site. Primary salinization risk is expected to be higher in one study site and in soils under poorly drainage conditions.
Highlights
The simulated data by the scenario RCP4.5 showed an increase in the mean maximum air temperature by 1.7, 2.4 and 3.4 ◦C for the Sotirio, Zappeion, and Trikala study sites, respectively, referring to the twenty years period of 2041–2060
Increases in mean maximum air temperature of 2.0, 2.6, and 3.6 ◦C were predicted for the Sotirio, Zappeion, and Trikala study sites, respectively, for the time period of 2081–2100
The scenario RCP8.5 predicted an increase in the maximum air temperature by 2.4, 3.1, and 4.0 ◦C for the Sotirio, Zappeion, and Trikala study sites, respectively, for the period 2041–2060
Summary
As a thermodynamically open system [1], receives inputs from the environment and at the same time exerts a strong influence on it. Agronomically, all the necessary measures must be established and applied so that the changes in soil system to be slow and the rates of soil formation and those of changes in its properties and its losses, as far as possible, to be balanced [2]. In this way, the soil system will be constantly approaching a state of equilibrium, which will ensure the sustainability of its ability to produce biomass and perform its functions as an integral part of the ecosystem. Under a regime of extreme external inputs, whether natural or man-induced, the desired approach to the equilibrium state is overturned and the existing changes become more intense, resulting in soil properties, functions, and general quality being degraded
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
