Abstract
The response of netizens toward controversial events plays an important guiding role in the development of events. Based on the identification of such responses, this study aimed to determine the critical outbreak time window of events. The microblog texts related to an event were divided into seven emotional categories via multi-emotional analysis to capture the subtle emotions of netizens toward an event, i.e., public opinion. By detecting the characteristics of the text and regional coverage of emotions, an emotional coverage index that reflects the intensity of emotional impact was proposed to determine the mainstream emotion of netizens. By capturing the mutation characteristics of the impact intensity of mainstream emotions, the critical time window of the public opinion toward the event was obtained. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively identify the critical outbreak time window of controversial events, which can help authorities in preventing the further aggravation of events.
Highlights
The upsurge of public opinion in controversial events severely threatens the social order and endangers public security
Identification of critical outbreak time window of controversial events in advance and reduce the losses caused by the events
During the evolution of the public opinion toward an event, the emotional response of netizens to the event plays an important role in forecasting and guiding the development trend of events
Summary
The upsurge of public opinion in controversial events severely threatens the social order and endangers public security. With the popularity of mobile internet, new media based on the internet and social network platforms has gradually replaced traditional media and has become a mainstream form of media [1]. As a type of new media, microblogs have been developed and popularized rapidly in China [2]. In a series of controversial events in recent years, the network public opinion due to new media platforms such as microblogs has played an important role [4, 5].
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