Identifying cost-minimizing strategies for guaranteeing target dairy income over feed cost via use of the Livestock Gross Margin dairy insurance program

Abstract

Milk and feed price volatility are the major source of dairy farm risk. Since August 2008 a new federally reinsured insurance program has been available to many US dairy farmers to help minimize the negative effects of adverse price movements. This insurance program is referred to as Livestock Gross Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle. Given the flexibility in contract design, the dairy farmer has to make 3 critical decisions when purchasing this insurance: 1) the percentage of monthly milk production to be covered, 3) declared feed equivalents used to produce this milk, and 3) the level of gross margin not covered by insurance (i.e., deductible). The objective of this analysis was to provide an optimal strategy of how a dairy farmer could incorporate this insurance program to help manage the variability in net farm income. In this analysis we assumed that a risk-neutral dairy farmer wants to design an insurance contract such that a target guaranteed income over feed cost is obtained at least cost. We undertook this analysis for a representative Wisconsin dairy farm (herd size: 120 cows) producing 8,873kg (19,545lb) of milk/cow per year. Wisconsin statistical data indicates that dairy farms of similar size must require an income over feed cost of at least $110/Mg ($5/cwt) of milk to be profitable during the coverage period. Therefore, using data for the July 2009 insurance contract to insure $110/Mg of milk, the least cost contract was found to have a premium of $1.22/Mg ($0.055/cwt) of milk produced insuring approximately 52% of the production with variable monthly production covered during the period of September 2009 to June 2010. This premium represented 1.10% of the desired IOFC. We compared the above optimal strategy with an alternative nonoptimal strategy, defined as a contract insuring the same proportion of milk as the optimal (52%) but with a constant amount insured across all contract months. The premium was found to be almost twice the level obtained under the cost-minimizing solution representing 1.9% of the insured amount. Our model identifies the lowest cost insurance contract for a desired target guaranteed income over feed cost.