Identifying coal-fired power plants for early retirement

Abstract

To ensure climate stability, the decarbonization of the global economy is necessary. Coal-fired power generation is both the most carbon-intensive form of electricity supply and associated with adverse health effects. Thus, retiring coal-fired power plants is essential for achieving the goals of the Paris agreement on climate change. Here we introduce a retirement index that ranks coal-fired power plants based on their age, carbon emissions, and potential for air pollution. We use data on 2143 operating coal-fired plants globally. Based on the index, the top plants identified for retirement are located in China, India and South Korea and account for a total capacity of 87 GW. These plants represent 1% of global coal fired plants yet account for 4.5% of global operating capacity. The results contrast with the commonly used approach that ranks plants based on age and thus prioritizes older plants in developed countries for early retirement rather than younger plants in developing countries. We run several sensitivity checks and results show that China and India remain consistently the top countries with most capacity in need of retirement.