Identifying climatic risks and relevant adaptation strategies for selected smallholder farming regions, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT Due to low adaptive capacities and high reliance on weather-sensitive natural ecosystems for their livelihoods and food production, smallholder farmers are highly vulnerable to risks associated with climate change and variability. Such risks are location-specific; thus, to cope with them, smallholder farmers require tailored adaptation strategies. To support these farmers, this study aimed to identify climatic risks threatening sustainable smallholder farming in the Limpopo Province regions of Gavaza, Ga-Makanye and Giyani. Weather station records spanning up to 1980–2021 were used to identify climatic risks, for the October–April dryland maize growing season. Risks were identified based on temporal trends and/or interannual variability patterns for reference evapotranspiration and a suite of agriculturally relevant rainfall and temperature indices. Based on the identified risks, tailor-made adaptation strategies were devised for application by farmers within the study region. The results revealed the specific risks of growing seasons becoming shorter and increasingly hotter with highly irregular rainfall patterns. To adapt and improve agricultural productivity despite these prevailing climatic risks, farmers within the study region will benefit if they plant drought tolerant, early maturing and higher yielding crop varieties, apply soil water conservation techniques and make use of seasonal and daily weather forecasts to guide their decision-making.