Abstract
Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is one of the important cool season food legumes in the semi-arid northeastern Ethiopia; however, its productivity is adversely affected by a number of abiotic and biotic factors. The objectives of this study were to assess impacts of projected climate change on grain yield of chickpea by 2030s (2020–2049) and 2050s (2040–2069) and to identify crop management options that increase productivity of the crop. The CROPGRO-chickpea model in DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) was used to assess impacts of projected climate change on chickpea and to identify adaptation options. The crop model was first calibrated and evaluated in the study area for simulating growth, yield and water balance of the soil. The result of the model calibration and evaluation showed that there were close agreement between the simulated and observed values that showed the performance of the model to simulate growth, phenology and yield of chickpea under semi-arid northeastern Ethiopian condition. The calibrated model was used to assess impacts of projected climate changes on chickpea and identify crop management options. The impact of projected climate change was assessed for 2030s and 2050s time periods under all the RCPs with and without CO2 fertilization. To identify crop management options, different varieties of chickpea, supplemental irrigation and change in planting dates have been evaluated. The result of climate change impact analysis on chickpea showed that grain yield is predicted to significantly increase both by 2030s and 2050s under CO2 fertilization condition across all the RCPs as compared to baseline grain yield (1961–1990). However, simulation without CO2 showed that grain yield will not significantly increase by 2030s and 2050s across all the scenarios. Based on the prediction result it can be generalized that chickpea will be benefited from the projected climate changes in northeastern Ethiopia. According to the simulation result application of two supplemental irrigation (flower initiation and pod setting stages) and early sowing significantly (P<0.05) increase grain yield of chickpea in northeastern Ethiopia under the present and future climate conditions. Selection of appropriate cultivars based on the agroecology of the area has paramount important to increase chickpea productivity under the present and future climate condition.
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