IDENTIFYING BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE TO TAX CHANGE OF LABOR INCOME IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Introduction. The National Revenue Strategy states that one of the directions for the further development of the national taxation system is the restoration of the progressive rates’ scale of personal income tax. Such a proposal looks appropriate and corresponds to the trends in the development of the labor market, the system of income generation in the national economy, and the demands of society. At the same time, the opportunistic reaction of taxpayers to the introduction of additional (increased) tax rates may lead to further evasion of labor income from taxation and, accordingly, an increase in tax risks of the state budget. Purpose of the article is to identificate of the behavioral response effect of the economic agents to tax change of labor income in Ukraine. Results. Changes in the taxation of labor income in 2015-2017 are characterized by the dynamics of such analytical indicators as the average effective tax rate and the tax wedge. The nominal growth of the wage fund in 2016 and 2017 is due to the following changes in taxation: an increase in the tax base and an increase in the average effective tax rate. In the short and medium term, reducing the tax burden did not have the expected positive effect, as predicted by the logic of Laffer's model. There is a significant increase in the share of wages at the average level, from 53.5% in 2012 to 63.8% in 2020. The share of labor income in the intervals from the lowest to the average earnings as of 2020 was more than 80%. The presence of an alternative system of income taxation with a significantly lower level of tax burden than the general system creates additional risks of effective implementation of personal income tax with a progressive scale of rates. Conclusions. The system of formation and distribution of labor income has undergone significant changes. The extremes of the income distribution (lowest and highest) were in relative gain compared to others. the introduction of a progressive scale of taxation rates exclusively for labor income in Ukraine does not have sufficient fiscal potential. In the case of a suboptimal political decision, with insufficient institutional capacity of control bodies and the presence of an alternative system of income taxation, there is a high probability of a significant increase in tax risks for state and local budgets.