Abstract
To realize the coordinated and sustainable development of hydropower projects and regional society, comprehensively evaluating hydropower projects’ influence is critical. Usually, hydropower project development has an impact on environmental geology and social and regional cultural development. Based on comprehensive consideration of complicated geological conditions, fragile ecological environment, resettlement of reservoir area, and other factors of future hydropower development in each country, we have constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of hydropower projects, including 4 first-level indicators of social economy, environment, safety, and fairness, which contain 26 second-level indicators. To solve the problem that existing models cannot evaluate dynamic nonlinear optimization, a projection pursuit model is constructed by using rough set reduction theory to simplify the index. Then, an accelerated genetic algorithm based on real number coding is used to solve the model and empirical study is carried out with the Y hydropower station as a sample. The evaluation results show that the evaluation index system and assessment model constructed in our paper effectively reduce the subjectivity of index weight. Applying our model to the social impact assessment (SIA) of related international hydropower projects can not only comprehensively analyze the social impact of hydropower projects but also identify important social influencing factors and effectively analyze the social impact level of each dimension. Furthermore, SIA assessment can be conducive to project decision-making, avoiding social risks and social stability.
Highlights
In the 20th century, human beings have witnessed the rapid development and change of hydropower projects
We identify and evaluate the comprehensive impact of each dimension on local society, together with potential positive or negative social impact of large-scale hydropower projects, providing theoretical guidance for the construction and management of hydropower projects
Results e weights of 26 indexes are calculated by rough set theory, among which 12 indexes with higher weights are selected to be substituted into the projection pursuit model. e model is solved by accelerating a genetic algorithm based on real number coding
Summary
In the 20th century, human beings have witnessed the rapid development and change of hydropower projects. Over the last decades of the twentieth century, Brazil and China became world leaders in hydropower. E Itaipu Dam, straddling Brazil and Paraguay, came into operation in 1984 with a capacity of 12,600 MW, which was enlarged to 14,000 MW [3, 4], second to the 22,500 MW ree Gorges Dam in China [5, 6]. As people are increasingly aware of the environmental and social impacts around the world, the value of hydropower and its role in national development needs to be reassessed [7, 8]
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