Identification of variables and development of a prediction model for DIBH eligibility in left-sided breast cancer radiotherapy: a prospective cohort study with temporal validation

Abstract

ObjectiveTo identify variables associated with a patients’ ability to reproducibly hold their breath for deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) radiotherapy (RT) and to develop a predictive model for DIBH eligibility.MethodsThis prospective, single-institution, IRB-approved observational study included women with left-sided breast cancer treated between January 2023 and March 2024. Patients underwent multiple breath-hold sessions over 2–3 consecutive days. DIBH waveform metrics and clinical factors were recorded and analysed. Logistic mixed modelling was used to predict DIBH eligibility, and a temporal validation cohort was used to assess model performance.ResultsIn total, 253 patients were included, with 206 in the model development cohort and 47 in the temporal validation cohort. The final logistic mixed model identified increasing average breath-hold duration (OR, 95% CI: 0.308, 0.104–0.910. p = 0.033) and lower amplitude (OR, 95% CI: 0.737, 0.641–0.848. p < 0.001) as significant predictors of DIBH eligibility. Increasing age was associated with higher odds of being ineligible for DIBH (OR, 95% CI: 1.040, 1.001–1.081. p = 0.044). The model demonstrated good discriminative performance in the validation cohort with an AUC of 80.9% (95% CI: 73.0-88.8).ConclusionThe identification of variables associated with DIBH eligibility and development of a predictive model has the potential to serve as a decision-support tool. Further external validation is required before its integration into routine clinical practice.