Identification of Urban Expansion Driving Factors using CA-Markov model: a Case Study Demak and Jepara Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

Land cover changes are a critical concern in a developing country where rapid urbanization and population growth intersect with environmental dynamics. Understanding the driving forces behind these changes is essential for sustainable development and effective land management. This study analyzes land cover changes in Demak-Jepara regency, Indonesia, over a 20-year period using Landsat data. The objective is to identify the dominant factors driving the increase in built-up areas, considering both natural and human-induced factors. Factors such as road distance, existing build area, and natural features are evaluated. Using ArcGIS and Idrisi Selva's Land Change Modeler, land cover data is processed, and Cellular Automata-Markov analysis is conducted. The study considers a cell size of 30 x 30 meters and a time step of 5 years from 2001 to 2009. Transition persistence analysis identifies significant factors, validated using 2020 land cover data through AUC (Area Under the Curve) and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristic) analysis. The combination of natural and human-induced factors (scenario-C) shows the highest AUC value of 0.9406, indicating better conformity with 2020 land cover. Dominant factors in scenario C include roads, existing built-up areas, river order, and slope gradient. Results reveal that road development and proximity to existing settlements are the primary drivers of land cover changes. Natural factors like river order and slope gradient have a lesser impact, while the coastline has minimal influence. These findings highlight the importance of considering both natural and human-induced factors in land use planning. They provide valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in making informed decisions for sustainable development and land use strategies. Keywords: Land Cover Changes; Driving Factors; Natural Factors; CA-Markov; Sustainable Development