Identification of Time-Dependent Risks of Hemodynamic States After Stage 1 Norwood Palliation

Abstract

Mortality after stage 1 palliation of hypoplastic left heart syndrome remains significant. Hemodynamic changes result from interaction of cardiac output (CO) and systemic vascular resistance (SVR). We sought to identify time-dependent changes in postoperative hemodynamic states and their associations with mortality. Perioperative data were prospectively collected in an institutional review board-approved database. Hemodynamic state was classified as high CO, high SVR, low SVR, and low CO using bivariate analysis of mean arterial pressure and somatic regional near-infrared spectroscopic oximetry saturation. State classifications over 48 postoperative hours were modelled using multinomial logistic regressions for association with mortality. Data from 9614 of 10,272 hours in 214 patients were analyzed. Operative survival was 91%. The predominant state was high CO (46% time). Low CO state without extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) was found in 52% of patients for 9.7% time. ECMO was employed in 24 (11.2%) patients for 10.4% time. State stability was 33%, with high SVR the least stable (17%) and high CO the most stable (53%). Transition from high CO increased in hours 1 to 12, mainly to low SVR. Transition to low CO was 18.4%, increasing in hours 1 to 12, mainly from high SVR. The transition risk to ECMO was 0.32%, and 0.74% during hours 1 to 12, only from low CO. Both low CO and ECMO had increased mortality risk. Bivariate classification defines hemodynamic states with distinct physiologic, transition, and mortality risk profiles. High SVR state was unstable. Transition to ECMO occurred only from low CO, while the low SVR and high CO states were safest.