Identification of the Mathematical Model of Failure Frequency of Overhead Lines of Power System Main Grid

Abstract

Based on the analysis of accidents of 500 kV over-head lines of the main electric electrical grid of a wide region over a long-time-interval, the failure frequency (failure flux parameter) was determined under the influence of natural and socio-economic factors. It is proposed to consider the indicated failure rate as the output signal of a discrete positive dynamic system with many difficult formalizable inputs. To identify the mathematical model of a dynamic system, it is proposed to use the original method, the identifiability criterion of which is based on the compatibility condition of the linear matrix equation, and the numerical identification algorithm is based on the solution formula using zero-divisors and generalized inverse matrices. The method does not require a priori information about the parameters of the mathematical model of the electric electrical grid, does not involve solving the forecasting problem, and does not apply statistical calculations