Identification of the best machine learning model for the prediction of driver injury severity

Abstract

Predicting the injury severities sustained by drivers engaged in road traffic accidents is a key topic of research in road traffic safety. The current study analyzed the driver injury severity (DIS) using twelve machine learning (ML) algorithms. These models were implemented using 0.70, 0.80, and 0.90 train ratios and 5-, 10- and 15-fold cross-validation. Ten years of accident data (from 2011 to 2020) was obtained from police department of Shillong, India. A total of 693 accidents were documented, with 68% being nonfatal and 32% being fatal. Precision, recall, accuracy, F1 score and area under the curve measures were used to compare the performance of all twelve ML models. Overall, the light gradient-boosting machine model was shown to be the best ML model for predicting the injury severities of drivers engaged in road traffic incidents. Finally, variable importance analysis results showed that cause of accident, collision type and types of vehicles were the most influencing factors in nonfatal and fatal driver accidents. The results also revealed that age and gender were slightly associated with DIS. The findings of the current research could be helpful to road safety agencies for the implementation of suitable countermeasures to increase driver safety in road accidents.