Identification of temperature and rainfall pattern in Bandar Lampung and the 2020-2049 projection

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that is increasingly needed to be discussed. In local scale climate change is expressed often as climate phenomenon such as El-Nino South Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). This condition caused many problems at the local scale especially in urban areas. Major hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and droughts impacted community daily life. Therefore, to deal with those hydrometeorological disasters, cities need to develop mitigation mechanisms based on data and information of future weather conditions. The objection of this study was to analyse historical climatic conditions of Bandar Lampung, Indonesia, and project the future climate up period of 2020-2049 using CMIP5 Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 models. Observed data was obtained from BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics) stations while projected data obtained from BMKG Climate Change Centre. The results showed there were downward tendency of rainfall both in historical data and the projection and for most of the season except for dry periods; while temperature showed upward tendency consistently. Mitigation actions with reducing greenhouse gas concentrations have impact more on temperature trend than on rainfall distribution.