Identification of technological threats and opportunities by firms

Abstract

A number of models and approaches are being developed in attempts to anticipate the nature and direction of technological change and its impact on the firm. Under what conditions might we expect firms to use one or more of these models in an organized way and under what conditions might we expect the resulting information to be used in the firm's planning process? The basic hypothesis of this paper is that effective use by firms of models for anticipating technological change can be explained based upon: the nature and extent of uncertainty in the firm's environment,the firm's strategy for growth, and the degree of definition of communication networks (both formal and informal) within the firm and between the firm and its environment. Technology planners and managers of 29 firms in a variety of industries have been interviewed concerning the ways in which technological threats and opportunities are identified and analyzed and the ways in which this information is integrated into the firm's normal planning cycle. A follow-up questionnaire is being designed to be sent to a larger number of respondents.