Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic and fatal disease of domestic pigs and wild boars caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV). There is neither effective treatment nor vaccine at present, and thus this disease has led to major economic losses and adverse impacts on the livelihoods of stakeholders involved in the pork food system in China. In this study, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method based on a geographic information system (GIS) was used to identify suitable areas for ASF occurrence in China. Ten spatial risk factors regarding ASF epidemic in China were identified from literature reviews, and the relative importance between them was evaluated by experts based on a pairwise comparison matrix. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the evaluated results. The corresponding geographic data were collected, according to the hypothetical relationship between each factor and the suitability for ASF occurrence, risk factors were converted to standardized geographical layers using suitability relationship and then were combined using a weighted linear combination (WLC) method to produce a map of suitability for ASF occurrence. The results showed that our map has good accuracy in predicting the hot- spots of ASF in China (AUC =0.791; 95% CI [0.741–0.852]). In conclusion, our study provides decision-making aid support for Chinese veterinary services to implement African swine fever surveillance and control measures.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.