Identification of seismically susceptible areas in western Himalaya using pattern recognition

Abstract

Seismicity in the western Himalayas is highly variable. Several historical and instrumentally recorded devastating earthquakes originated in the western Himalayas which are part of the Alpine–Himalayan belt. Earthquakes cause tremendous loss of life and to the built environment. The amount of loss in terms of life and infrastructure has been rising continuously due to significant increase in population and infrastructure. This study is an attempt to identify seismically susceptible areas in western Himalaya, using pattern recognition technique. An area between latitude 29∘–36∘N and longitude 73∘–80∘E was considered for this study. Pattern recognition starts with identification, selection and extraction of features from seismotectonic data. These features are then subjected to discriminant analysis and the study area was classified into three categories, viz., Area A: most susceptible area, Area B: moderately susceptible area, and Area C: least susceptible area. Results show that almost the entire states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and a portion of Jammu & Kashmir are classified as Area A, while most of Jammu & Kashmir is classified as Area B and the Indo-Gangetic plains are classified as Area C.