Abstract
Regional climate variability assessment is of great significance in decision-making such as agriculture and water resources system management. The identification of sub-regions with similar drought variability can provide a basis for agricultural disaster reduction planning and water resource distribution. In this research, a modified daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to monitor the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of agricultural drought in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2017, which was studied by using the rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF). Through the seasonal REOF process, 7–9 seasonal drought sub-regions are confirmed by applying time series and the correlation relationship of SPEI original data. The strong correlation of these sub-regions indicates that the climate and weather conditions causing the drought are consistent and the drought conditions are independent for the regions that show no correlation. In general, the results of the seasonal trend analysis show that there has been no significant trend value in most areas since 1960. However, it is worth noting that some regions have the positive and negative temporal trends in different seasons. These results illustrate the importance of seasonal analysis, particularly for agro-ecosystems that depend on timely rainfall during different growing seasons. If this trend continues, seasonal drought will become more complex, then a more elaborate water management strategy will be needed to reduce its impact.
Highlights
Drought is a recurring extreme climate event with a character of multiscale [1,2], which can cause the water shortage and threaten the food security [3,4]
Seven Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) were selected for spring Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) rotation, and seven sub-regions similar to drought variability were obtained (Figure 2a), which explained 83.2% of drought variability
In North China Plain, SPEI monitored the most variable drought happened in spring and summer, while these two seasons are just the most critical periods for crop growth
Summary
Drought is a recurring extreme climate event with a character of multiscale [1,2], which can cause the water shortage and threaten the food security [3,4]. Assessment to regional climate variability plays quite an important significance in the management of water source and agricultural system [8,9,10,11]. Planting of wheat and corn in North China Plain account for 45% and 33% of the gross planting area of China respectively [13]. It is still a densely-populated area with a great pressure on the land use. Drought in this area has limited the regional economic development and may cause influence on the sustainable development of local agriculture and improvement of people’s living standards [14]. The past record shows that North China Plain has experienced variable
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