Identification of prognostic factors for predicting survival of patients with malignant adrenal tumors: A population-based study.

Abstract

This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with malignant adrenal tumors and establish a predictive nomogram for patient survival. The clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed with malignant adrenal tumors between 1988 and 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. As the external validation set, we included 110 real-world patients from our medical centers. Univariate and multivariate Cox regressions were implemented to determine the prognostic factors of patients. The results from Cox regression were applied to establish the nomogram. A total of 2,206 eligible patients were included in our study. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set (1,544; 70%) and the validation set (662; 30%). It was determined that gender, age, marital status, histological type, tumor size, SEER stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were prognostic factors that affected patient survival. The OS prediction nomogram contained all the risk factors, while gender was excluded in the CSS prediction nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that the nomogram had a better predictive performance than SEER stage. Moreover, the clinical impact curve (CIC) showed that the nomograms functioned as effective predictive models in clinical application. The C-index of nomogram for OS and CSS prediction was 0.773 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.761-0.785) and 0.689 (95% CI: 0.675-0.703) in the training set. The calibration curves exhibited significant agreement between the nomogram and actual observation. Additionally, the results from the external validation set also presented that established nomograms functioned well in predicting the survival of patients with malignant adrenal tumors. The following clinical variables were identified as prognostic factors: age, marital status, histological type, tumor size, SEER stage, surgery, and chemotherapy. The nomogram for patients with malignant adrenal tumors contained the accurate predictive performance of OS and CSS, contributing to optimizing individualized clinical treatments.