Abstract
The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a top predator with the extant population found within the Brazilian Caatinga biome now known to be on the brink of extinction. Designing new conservation units and potential corridors are therefore crucial for the long-term survival of the species within the Caatinga biome. Thus, our aims were: 1) to recognize suitable areas for jaguar occurrence, 2) to delineate areas for jaguar conservation (PJCUs), 3) to design corridors among priority areas, and 4) to prioritize PJCUs. A total of 62 points records of jaguar occurrence and 10 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. A predictive distributional map was obtained using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) as performed by the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Areas equal to or higher than the median suitability value of 0.595 were selected as of high suitability for jaguar occurrence and named as Priority Jaguar Conservation Units (PJCU). Ten PJCUs with sizes varying from 23.6 km2 to 4,311.0 km2 were identified. Afterwards, we combined the response curve, as generated by SDM, and expert opinions to create a permeability matrix and to identify least cost corridors and buffer zones between each PJCU pair. Connectivity corridors and buffer zone for jaguar movement included an area of 8.884,26 km2 and the total corridor length is about 160.94 km. Prioritizing criteria indicated the PJCU representing c.a. 68.61% of the total PJCU area (PJCU # 1) as of high priority for conservation and connectivity with others PJCUs (PJCUs # 4, 5 and 7) desirable for the long term survival of the species. In conclusion, by using the jaguar as a focal species and combining SDM and expert opinion we were able to create a valid framework for practical conservation actions at the Caatinga biome. The same approach could be used for the conservation of other carnivores.
Highlights
Habitat fragmentation has been recognized as a major threat to the conservation of a variety of species [1] [2] mainly because it can isolate previously connected populations and, disrupt original patterns of gene flow likely to lead to drift-induced differentiation among local population units [3]
We focused this study in the Caatinga biome, considered a priority area for jaguar conservation since its population is listed as critically endangered [20]
The model was highly accurate: 97% of the new independent data set was correctly predicted by the model and 52.94% of the presence points were predicted in highly suitable areas ($70%)
Summary
Habitat fragmentation has been recognized as a major threat to the conservation of a variety of species [1] [2] mainly because it can isolate previously connected populations and, disrupt original patterns of gene flow likely to lead to drift-induced differentiation among local population units [3]. Patterns of animal movement may be used as the baseline for corridor design; it depends on timeconsuming methods, such as the use long-term field data, dispersal movements, and demographics [10] In this way, using models that rely solely on presence data to evaluate a species potential distribution and identify high suitable areas for a focal species could be a very useful tool for building ‘‘potential corridors’’ [11] [12]. In general this information can be applied for identifying core populations or habitat [11], which could be connected. Considering that some population models frequently used to evaluate connectivity, such as the least-cost path analyses models, depend on an understanding of how animals move through a landscape [13] such information can indicate environmental factors facilitating or impeaching animal movement or survival
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