Identification of potential lamdslide hazards at the regional and local scale: main principles and approaches

Abstract

Summary Landslides forecasting is based on various approaches and methodology. Forecasting at the regional scale can be both qualitative and quantitative and can be carried out using both stochastic and deterministic methods. Regional forecasts imply special zoning of the territory, which characterizes the distribution of landslides, the conditions for their occurrence and activation, and determines the probability of occurrence. The integrated landslide hazard map of Kyiv region was developed by the method of overlay transformations. Various data can be involved in the overlay analysis, which determine the priority factors of mass movements and their possible combinations. One of the examples of the involvement of geological data in the prediction of landslides at the regional scale can be lineament analysis. The results of the lineament analysis for seismically induced landslides in central Nepal has been proposed. The methodology of landslide forecasting at the local scale for assessing the condition of landslide slopes based on a complex of instrumental non-invasive geophysical methods was developed using the example of tested areas within the Middle Dnieper region in Ukraine. It was confirmed that one of the important criteria for assessing the slope stability is the stress-strain state of the rock mass.