Abstract
The conflict between excessive population development and vulnerable resource (including water, food, and energy resources) capacity influenced by multiple uncertainties can increase the difficulty of decision making in a big city with large population scale. In this study, an adaptive population and water–food–energy (WFE) management framework (APRF) incorporating vulnerability assessment, uncertainty analysis, and systemic optimization methods is developed for optimizing the relationship between population development and WFE management (P-WFE) under combined policies. In the APRF, the vulnerability of WFE was calculated by an entropy-based driver–pressure–state–response (E-DPSR) model to reflect the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability caused by population growth, economic development, and resource governance. Meanwhile, a scenario-based dynamic fuzzy model with Hurwicz criterion (SDFH) is proposed for not only optimizing the relationship of P-WFE with uncertain information expressed as possibility and probability distributions, but also reflecting the risk preference of policymakers with an elected manner. The developed APRF is applied to a real case study of Beijing city, which has characteristics of a large population scale and resource deficit. The results of WFE shortages and population adjustments were obtained to identify an optimized P-WEF plan under various policies, to support the adjustment of the current policy in Beijing city. Meanwhile, the results associated with resource vulnerability and benefit analysis were analyzed for improving the robustness of policy generation.
Highlights
The vulnerability of the WFE supply system has increased due to natural and artificial factors in recent decades. Various strategies such as population adjustment based on industrial transformation, resource-saving techniques, and resource importation planning have been advocated, how to identify the interaction between population development and WFE
The results present that the vulnerability of WFE increased decreased, with the inflection points occurring in 2012, 2014, and 2016 in line with strategies for population adjustment and technique improvement in Beijing city
In the comparison of exposure (EI), sensitivity (SI), and adaptability (AI) levels, the results reveal that SI levels would be higher than EI levels, demonstrating that population adjustment would influence the WFE system
Summary
Safe gain production, and sustainable energy supply can be regarded as important factors to support urban development, which can provide basic power supply for urban operation and meet the material needs for human living [1]. Under the background of accelerated urbanization, overpopulation growth, and rapid economic development, the demands of water–food–energy resources (WFE) are increased, which might surpass what natural or artificial systems can afford, leading to a resource crisis [2]. In some big cities such as Beijing (China) with a large population, the conflict between increasing resource demand and limited WFE carrying capacity can increase the risk of resource shortage.
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