Abstract
Identifying the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of vegetation changes is the basis for adapting to climate change and optimizing human activities. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity region, which is characterized by significant geomorphic gradients, was chosen as the case study area. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used to calculate the NDVI trends and related factors from 2000 to 2015. A geographic weighted regression (GWR) model of NDVI trends was constructed using 14 elements of seven categories. Combined with the GWR calculation results, the mechanisms of the effects of explanatory variables on NDVI changes were analyzed. The findings suggest that the overall vegetation displayed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2015, with an NDVI increase of ca. 0.005/year. Additionally, the NDVI fluctuations in individual years were closely related to precipitation and temperature anomalies. The spatial pattern of the NDVI change was highly consistent with the gradients of geomorphology, climate, and human activities, which have a tendency to gradually change from northwest to southeast. The dominant climate-driven area accounted for only 5.98% of the total study area. The vegetation improvement areas were regionally concentrated and had various driving factors, and vegetation degradation exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity. The vegetation degradation was mainly caused by human activities. Natural vegetation was improved because of natural factors and reductions in human activities. Moreover, cropland vegetation as well as urban and built-up area improvements were related to increased human actions and decreased natural effects. This study can assist in ecological restoration planning and ecological engineering implementation in the study area.
Highlights
Under the combined effects of global climate change and regional socioeconomic activities, vegetation at different spatial scales is undergoing complex change processes [1,2]
The fastest NDVIGR in the primary geomorphic units occurred in the North China Mountains (0.006/yr), the slowest NDVIGR occurred in the North Plain (0.0044/yr), and the NDVIGR was 0.005/yr in the Inner Mongolia Plateau
normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed a significant reduction when precipitation decreased and temperature increased, and this impact lasted until the following year
Summary
Under the combined effects of global climate change and regional socioeconomic activities, vegetation at different spatial scales is undergoing complex change processes [1,2]. Vegetation differentiation and trends are affected by various factors, such as climate [9,10], landforms [11,12], land cover types [13,14], and human activities [14,15,16,17]. Chen et al [14] pointed out that global MODIS data revealed increasing leaf area of vegetation from 2000 to 2017, which is caused by human land-use management and climate change, CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and recovery from natural disturbances. Liu et al [15] found that global NDVI increased from 1982 to 2012 It is unclear how natural and human factors together affect NDVI trends and how their effects evolve over time
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