Identification of financial indicators affecting the economic growth before and during global crises: Evidence from developing countries

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses relationship between financial indicators and economic growth. Objectives. The aim is to investigate the impact of financial indicators on economic growth in developing economies, including the period during crises, using aggregated indicators. Methods. The study employs the correlation and regression analysis. Results. The analysis searched for statistically significant factors for the period from 2000 to 2020 for five groups of countries, using the International Monetary Fund database and comparison of samples, i.e. total, by region, during the last two crises (2008–2009 and 2019–2020) and between crises. The results show that the most statistically significant and positive impact on economic growth is exerted by the volume of exports of goods and services in the general sample and by region. During the crisis and inter-crisis periods, the volume of imports of goods and services has a statistically significant positive impact, and the greatest negative impact during the crisis period is made by external debt. In the inter-crisis period, investments also have a positive impact. The results of the analysis of the total sample indicate the need for further selection of independent variables. Conclusions. The findings can be applied to compare and evaluate the impact of new crises on economic growth. In addition, they may be used by public authorities, when developing financial and economic concepts and strategic plans for the development of emerging market economies.