Abstract
The identification of extreme wind events and their driving forces are crucial to better integrating wind generation into the power system. Recent work related the occurrence of extreme wind events with some weather circulation patterns, enabling the identification of (i) wind power ramps and (ii) low-generation events as well as their intrinsic features, such as the intensity and time duration. Using Portugal as a case study, this work focuses on the application of a weather classification-type methodology to link the weather conditions with wind power generation, namely, the different types of extreme events. A long-term period is used to assess and characterize the changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events and corresponding intensity on wind power production. High variability is expected under cyclonic regimes, whereas low-generation events are most common in anticyclonic regimes. The results of the work provide significant insights regarding wind power production in Portugal, enabling an increase in its predictability.
Highlights
The identification of extreme wind events and their driving forces are crucial to better integrating wind generation into the power system
As an example, according to the national energy and climate plans of European Union countries, 80% of the new installed capacity will be based on renewable energy systems, namely, wind technology, which may become the main source of energy in the coming decades [2]
(1 h and nearly 31 km, respectively) compared to the aforementioned reanalyses. This product is being developed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and several authors have already highlighted the substantial improvement with respect to other similar products [19]
Summary
The role and importance of atmospheric reanalyses for climate monitoring is widely recognized, with the first generation comprising three datasets: the NCEP-R1 [14], the ERA-40 [15], and the JRA-25 [16]. A new product, NCEPR2 [17], was released This procedure occurred for the remaining datasets. The ECMWF released the ERA5 reanalysis, replacing the former ERA-Interim products since this new product presents much higher temporal and spatial resolutions (1 h and nearly 31 km, respectively) compared to the aforementioned reanalyses. This product is being developed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and several authors have already highlighted the substantial improvement with respect to other similar products [19]. January 1950 to December 2019 (70 years of data) with hourly resolution
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