Identification of Establishment Risk and Potential Invasiveness of Non-Native Fish Species in Anzali Wetland, Iran, Using the Freshwater Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) and Climate Matching Model (CLIMATCH)

Abstract

Predicting establishment and invasiveness risks of non-native (NN) species are fundamental aspects in the development of preventing measures and management plans. The main aim of the present study was to identify potential establishment rate and invasive of NN fish species using the Freshwater Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) and climate matching model (CLIMATCH) respectively. The Anzali Wetland Complex (AWC) was selected as risk assessment (RA) area which is located in the southern Caspian Sea basin. Overall, fifteen NN fish species were assessed in the RA area. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve showed that the two models identified reliably high potential establishment rate and invasive NN fishes in the RA area. FISK and CLIMATCH were calibrated to produce RA area-specific threshold values. The threshold values were 11 and 0.87 for FISK and CLIMATCH, respectively. FISK and CLIMATCH categorized 73.3 and 60% of NN fish species as high invasive risk and high probability of establishment, respectively. Six out of 15 NN fish species (i.e. Carassius gibelio, Cyprinus carpio, Gambusia holbrooki, Hemiculter leucisculus, Gasterosteus aculeatus and Pseudorasbora parva) that were assessed to pose both high risk of being invasive and high probability of successful establishment in the AWC. The results suggest that the FISK and CLIMATCH can be an effective decision-support tools for identifying potential high risk NN fish species in the wetlands connected to the Caspian Sea.