Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

U Hancilar

doi:10.5194/nhess-12-107-2012

Abstract

Abstract. Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious), infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings) and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities). Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

Highlights

The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of the North Anatolian Fault System
The objective of the present study is to identify the elements at risk based on a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Istanbul carried out by OYO Co. (2007)
The built environment on the shorelines of Istanbul exposed to tsunami inundation, that results from a probabilistic hazard assessment for 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 yr, consists of residential, commercial, industrial, public, infrastructure and military buildings as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations, urban elements

Summary

Introduction

The city of Istanbul is under the threat of earthquakes expected to originate from the Main Marmara branch of the North Anatolian Fault System. With the evidence of past earthquakes, the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings, as well as that of lifelines including port and harbour structures in the country, is questionable (Erdik and Durukal, 2008; Durukal et al, 2008). These facts make the management of earthquake risks imperative for the reduction of physical and socio-economic losses. Along the northern and eastern shores an uninterrupted settlement pattern with industries, businesses, commercial centres and ports and harbours in between is seen (Hancilar et al, 2008)

Objectives

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Conclusion