Identification of critical sections of the Spanish transport system due to climate scenarios

Abstract

In recent years climate change has become a multidisciplinary research topic that addresses the challenges facing transport infrastructure planning, construction and operation. The study of the adaptation of transport systems to new environmental conditions is often based on the interrelated concepts of resilience, vulnerability and criticality. In this paper we assess the criticality of sections of Spain's inland transport network under the effects of changing climate scenarios obtained from a specific climate projection (using the time periods 2010–2020 and 2045–2055). The functionality of the transport system is characterised here in terms of territorial accessibility. The results identify and locate the most critical stretches of the Spanish transport network. In general terms, the most relevant sections in regard to accessibility will not be exposed to the greatest changes in climate variables. Up to 2.8% of the roads and 5.9% of the railways that contribute most significantly to the territorial accessibility of the transport system will undergo the greatest variations between climate scenarios. This paper contributes to this field of research by developing a screening tool that represents a valuable instrument for the infrastructure decision-making process at the strategic level. Action areas for proactive adaptation measures can be identified in order to reduce impacts and costs, while prioritising the maintenance or reconstruction of the most critical stretches in the case of a future climate event.