Identification of conflict between wildlife living spaces and human activity spaces and adjustments in/around protected areas under climate change：A case study in the Three-River Source Region

Abstract

Overlap between wildlife living spaces and human activity spaces represents one of the main causes of human-wildlife conflict. It is therefore necessary to identify and adjust the spatial distribution of conflicts because climate change will modify the ranges and locations of species. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the distribution of wildlife living spaces under current and future climatic conditions (RCP4.5 scenario) based on species distribution data and environmental data from the Three-River Source Region. Furthermore, the logistic-cellular automata model was used to simulate the changes in human activity spaces (construction land and arable land) by 2050. Areas of overlap between wildlife living spaces and human activity spaces were determined by overlay analysis. Then, the areas of construction and arable land that would conflict with wildlife were redistributed outside highly suitable wildlife living spaces. In addition, ecological corridors connecting current and future living spaces were planned for the migration of certain species in response to climate change based on the minimum cumulative resistance model. The results showed that the areas of highly suitable wildlife living spaces will decrease under the influence of climate change if global warming occurs. In the future, the area of overlap between highly suitable wildlife living spaces and construction land will be 125 km2, and that between highly suitable wildlife living spaces and arable land will be 340 km2. The redistribution of these areas will cause human activity spaces to become more concentrated. Moreover, 110 ecological corridors should be constructed across roads in the Three-River Source Region.