Abstract
Human influenza infections display a strongly seasonal pattern. However, whether H7N9 and H5N1 infections correlate with climate factors has not been examined. Here, we analyzed 350 cases of H7N9 infection and 47 cases of H5N1 infection. The spatial characteristics of these cases revealed that H5N1 infections mainly occurred in the South, Middle, and Northwest of China, while the occurrence of H7N9 was concentrated in coastal areas of East and South of China. Aside from spatial-temporal characteristics, the most adaptive meteorological conditions for the occurrence of human infections by these two viral subtypes were different. We found that H7N9 infections correlate with climate factors, especially temperature (TEM) and relative humidity (RHU), while H5N1 infections correlate with TEM and atmospheric pressure (PRS). Hence, we propose a risky window (TEM 4–14 °C and RHU 65–95%) for H7N9 infection and (TEM 2–22 °C and PRS 980-1025 kPa) for H5N1 infection. Our results represent the first step in determining the effects of climate factors on two different virus infections in China and provide warning guidelines for the future when provinces fall into the risky windows. These findings revealed integrated predictive meteorological factors rooted in statistic data that enable the establishment of preventive actions and precautionary measures against future outbreaks.
Highlights
Influenza viruses with high infectivity and widespread outbreak patterns, these two Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) often cause sporadic and small outbreaks, despite the lack of human-to-human transmission ability, so other more complex reasons were involved
Data have indicated that environmental factors affect the prevalence of H5N1 and H7N9, with the infection and spread of the two viruses being closely correlated with bird habitats, migration, and local climate factors[17]
We found that the occurrence of H5N1 influenza virus was concentrated in March, April, October, and November, while H7N9 influenza peaked in January and February
Summary
Influenza viruses with high infectivity and widespread outbreak patterns, these two AIVs often cause sporadic and small outbreaks, despite the lack of human-to-human transmission ability, so other more complex reasons were involved Because these two viruses are associated with both wild and domestic bird populations, it is likely that environmental factors play a significant role in the spread of the viruses. Given the mobility of wild birds and the challenges of sustained control, it is of great importance to identify which environment factors correlate with the occurrence of these two viruses Both the H5N1 and H7N9 influenza viruses are of avian origin and have similar infectivity to humans, but their transmission region, outbreak timing, and host range are diverse. Understanding the outbreak patterns of these viruses is important to identify high-risk populations and areas, as well as to establish preventive actions and precautionary measures against future outbreaks
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