Identification of clean energy development routes under carbon emission constraints: A path towards structural adjustment of the power system

Abstract

Clarifying the clean energy (CE) development path is significant for realizing energy system transformation, coping with climate risks, and ensuring energy and ecological security. This paper uses national data from China from 1978 to 2021 as a sample. It considers the year-by-year dynamic indicators of changes in technology, population, industry, and economic factors in the short term. It takes the mandatory carbon emission reduction targets set by the country as the basis for carbon constraints. The Markov chain model was introduced to construct a power demand structure prediction model under scenarios to more accurately quantify the energy-saving and emission-reduction paths under different carbon constraints and economic development scenarios. The results show that China's electricity demand will rapidly grow in the short term. The upper limit constraint of thermal power generation under the high and normal economic growth models still has room to grow in the short term under the target carbon emission constraint scenario. During 2025–2030, the overall lower limit growth rate of the CE power generation structure under the target emission reduction scenario must exceed 8%, and the overall growth rate under the high-efficiency emission reduction scenario must exceed 12%. By 2030, the proportion of hydropower in CE generation is estimated to decrease to 33.7%, while nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power generation will increase to 16.3%, 30.5% and 19.5%, respectively. These results provide a reference for the government to formulate a CE development path against the background of carbon constraints.